Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability, Tropical Cyclones, High-Impact Weather

Submitted — in revision — accepted — in press:

  • Hauser, S., Teubler, F., Riemer, M., and Grams, C. M., 2026: A quasi-Lagrangian perspective on the role of dry and moist processes in the formation of blocked North Atlantic-European weather regimes, Weather and Climate Dynamics, in revision

Published:

2026

  • Golding, B.W., S. Potter, D. Johnston, E. Ebert, T. Kox, A. Taylor, M. Tan, J. Sun, M. Riemer, J. Robbins, B. Mills, Z. Liang, Q. Zhang, and L. Li, 2026: Making warnings count: 10 years of research in HIWeather, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 107, E372–E385, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0123.1
  • Groot, E., and Riemer, M., 2026: When tiny convective spread affects a midlatitude jet: spread sequence. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 152(775), e70049. doi: 10.1002/qj.70049

2025

2024

  • Doensen, O., Fragkoulidis, G., Magnusson, L., Riemer, M., Wirth, V., 2024: Medium-range predictability of temperature extremes and biases in Rossby-wave amplitude. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150(765), 5390-5402. doi: 10.1002/qj.4875
  • Prestel-Kupferer, I., Riemer, M., Schmidt, S. and Teubler, F., 2024: Predictability of midlatitude Rossby-wave packets. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150, 5057–5073. doi: 10.1002/qj.4856
  • Fischer, C., Fink, A. H., Schömer, E., Rautenhaus, M., and Riemer, M., 2024: An objective identification technique for potential vorticity structures associated with African Easterly Waves. Geoscientific Model Development, 17, 4213–4228. doi: 10.5194/gmd-17-4213-2024
  • Hauser, S., Teubler, F., Riemer, M., Knippertz, P., and Grams, C. M., 2024: Life cycle dynamics of Greenland blocking from a potential vorticity perspective. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5, 633–658. doi: 10.5194/wcd-5-633-2024

2023

  • Hauser, S., Teubler, F., Riemer, M., Knippertz, P., and Grams, C. M., 2023: Towards a holistic understanding of blocked regime dynamics through a combination of complementary diagnostic perspectives. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4, 399–425. doi: 10.5194/wcd-4-399-2023
  • Keshtgar, B., Voigt, B. A., Hoose, C., Riemer, M., and Mayer, B., 2023: Cloud radiative impact on the dynamics and predictability of an idealized extratropical cyclone. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 4, 115–132. doi: 10.5194/wcd-4-115-2023

2022

  • Selz, T., Riemer, M., and Craig, G., 2022: The transition from practical to intrinsic predictability of midlatitude weather. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 79, 2013–2030. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0271.1
  • Golding, B., Sun, J., Riemer, M., Yussouf, N., Titley, H., Robbins, J., Ebert, B., Pagano, T., Lewis, H., and Dashwood, C., 2022: Connecting weather and hazard – a partnership of physical scientists in connected discipline. In Towards the “Perfect” Weather Warning, pp. 149–200, Springer, Cham. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7_6
  • Joe, P., Sun, J., Yussouf, N., Goodman, S., Riemer, M., Gouda, K., Golding, B., Rogers, R., Isaac, G., Wilson, J., Li, P. W. P., Wulfmeyer, V., Elmore, K., Onlvlee, Chong, J. P. , and LaDue, J., 2022: Predicting the weather – a partnership of observation scientists and forecasters. In Towards the “Perfect” Weather Warning, pp. 201–254. Springer, Cham. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7_7
  • Fischer, C., Fink, A. H., Schömer, E., van der Linden, R., Maier-Gerber, M., Rautenhaus, M., and Riemer, M., 2022: A novel method for objective identification of 3-D potential vorticity anomalies. Geoscientific Model Development, 15, 4447–4468. doi: 10.5194/gmd-15-4447-2022

2021

  • Teubler, F. and Riemer, M., 2021: Potential-Vorticity Dynamics of Troughs and Ridges within Rossby Wave Packets during a 40-year reanalysis period. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2, 535–559. doi: 10.5194/wcd-2-535-2021
  • Grazzini, F., Fragkoulidis, G., Teubler, F., Wirth, V. and Craig, G. C., 2021, Extreme precipitation events over northern Italy. Part II: Dynamical precursors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 147(735), 1237-1257. doi:10.1002/qj.3969
  • Maier-Gerber, M., Fink, A. H. , Riemer, M., Schömer, E., Fischer, C., and Schulz, B., 2021: Statistical-Dynamical Forecasting of Sub-Seasonal North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence, Weather and Forecasting, 36, 2127-2142. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-21-0020.1

2020

  • Riemer, M., Keller, J. H., and Grams, C. M., 2020: Die außertropische Umwandlung tropischer Wirbelstürme und ihre Folgen, PROMET, 103, 67-76.
  • Kremer, T., Schömer, E., Euler, C., and Riemer, M., 2020: Cluster analysis tailored to structure change of tropical cyclones using a very large number of trajectories. Monthly Weather Review, 148, 4209–4229. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0408.1

2019

  • Ghinassi, P., Baumgart, M., Teubler, F., Riemer, M., and Wirth, V., 2019: A budget equation for the amplitude of Rossby wave packets based on finite amplitude local wave activity. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 77 (1), 277–296. doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-19-0149.1
  • Baumgart, M. A., and Riemer, M., 2019: Processes governing the amplification of ensemble spread in a medium-range forecast with large forecast uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 3252–3270. doi: 10.1002/qj.3617
  • Baumgart, M., Ghinassi, P. , Wirth, V., Selz, T., Craig, G., and Riemer, M., 2019: Quantitative view on the processes governing the upscale error growth up to the planetary scale using a stochastic convection scheme. Monthly Weather Review, 147, 1713–1731. doi: 10.1175/MWRD180292.1
  • Euler, C., Riemer, M., Kremer, T., and Schömer, E., 2019: Lagrangian Description of Air Masses Associated with Latent Heat Release in Tropical Storm Karl (2016) during Extratropical Transition. Monthly Weather Review, 147, 2657–2676. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0422.1
  • Zhang, Q., Li, L., Ebert, B., Golding, B., Johnston, D., Mills, B., Panchuk, S., Potter, S., Riemer, M., Sun, J., Taylor, A., Jones, S., Ruti, P., and Keller, J., 2019: Increasing the Value of Weather-Related Warnings. Science Bulletin, 64, 647–649. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2019.04.003
  • Fu, H., Wang, Y., Riemer, M., and Li, Q., 2019: Effect of Unidirectional Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change – Lower-Layer Shear versus Upper-Layer Shear. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 124, 6265–6282. doi: 10.1029/2019JD030586
  • Di Muzio, E., Riemer, M., Fink, A. H. M., and Maier-Gerber, M., 2019: Assessing the predictability of Medicanes in ECMWF ensemble forecasts using an object-based approach. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 145, 1202–1217. doi: 10.1002/qj.3489
  • Riboldi, J., Grams, C. M., Riemer, M., and Archambault, H. M., 2019: A phase-locking perspective on Rossby wave amplification and atmospheric blocking downstream of recurving western North Pacific tropical cyclones. Monthly Weather Review, 147, 567–589. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0271.1
  • Keller, J. H., Grams, C. M., Riemer, M., Archambault, H. M., Bosart, L., Doyle, J., Evans, J. L. , Galarneau, T., Griffin, K. S. , Harr, P. A. , Kitabatake, N., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Pantillon, F., Quinting, J. F. D., Reynolds, C. A.,Ritchie, E. A., Torn, R., Zhang, F., 2019: The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Interaction with the midlatitude flow, downstream impacts and implications in predictability. Monthly Weather Review, 147, 1077–1106. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1
  • Kumpf, A., Rautenhaus, M., Riemer, M., and Westermann, R., 2019: Visual Analysis of the Temporal Evolution of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivities. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 25, 98–108. doi: 10.1109/TVCG.2018.2864901
  • Maier-Gerber, M., Riemer, M., Fink, A. H., Knippertz, P., Di Muzio, E., and McTaggart-Cowan, R., 2019: Tropical Transition of Hurricane Chris (2012) over the North Atlantic Ocean: A Multi-Scale Investigation of Predictability. Monthly Weather Review, 147, 951–970. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0188.1

2018

  • Lentink, H. S., C. M. Grams, M. Riemer, and S. C. Jones, 2018: The effects of orography on the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones: a case study of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008), Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 4231-4246
  • DeVries, A. J., H. G. Oversloot, S. B. Feldstein, Riemer, M., A. M. El Kenawy, M. F. McCabe, and J. Lelieveld, 2018: Identification of Tropical-Extratropical Interaction and Extreme Precipitation Events in the Middle East based on Potential Vorticity and Moisture Transport, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123, DOI:10.1002/2017JD027587
  • Wirth, V., M. Riemer, E. K. M. Chang, and O. Martius, 2018: Rossby Wave Packets on the Midlatitude Waveguide – A Review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146(7), 1965–2001, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-16-0483.1
  • Baumgart, M., M. Riemer, V. Wirth, F. Teubler, and S. T. K. Lang, 2018: Potentialvorticity dynamics of forecast errors: A quantitative case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 1405–1425, DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0196.1.[Link to online version.]
  • Kumpf, A., B. Tost, M. Baumgart, M. Riemer, R. Westermann, and M. Rautenhaus, 2018:Visualizing Benefit and Robustness of Cluster-based Displays of Ensemble Weather Forecasts, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 24, 109-119

2017

  • Jung, P., P. Hausner, L. Pilz, J. Stern, C. Euler, M. Riemer, and F. Sadlo, 2017: Tumble-Vortex Core Line Extraction, proceedings of SIBGRAPI WVIS
  • Evans, C.; K. Wood; S. D. Aberson; H. M. Archambault; S. M. Milrad; L. F. Bosart; K. L. Corbosiero; C. A. Davis; J. R. Dias Pinto; J. Doyle; C. Fogarty; T. J. Galarneau, Jr.; C. M. Grams; K. S. Griffin; J. Gyakum; R. E. Hart; N. Kitabatake; H. S. Lentink; R. McTaggart-Cowan; W. Perrie; J. F. D. Quinting; C. A. Reynolds; M. Riemer; E. Ritchie; Y. Sun; F. Zhang, 2017: The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Cyclone Evolution and Direct Impacts, Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 4317-4344
  • Maier-Gerber, M., F. Pantillon, E. Di Muzio, M. Riemer, A. H. Fink, P. Knippertz, 2017: Birth of the Biscane, Weather, 72, 236-241
  • Schneidereit, A., D.H.W. Peters, C. Grams, J. Quinting, J. Keller, G. Wolf, F. Teubler, M. Riemer, and O. Martius, 2017: Enhanced tropospheric wave forcing of two anticyclones in the pre-phase of January 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming event (MSSW), Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 1797-1815

2016

  • Riemer, M., 2016: Meso-beta-scale environment for the stationary band complex of vertically-sheared tropical cyclones, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2442-2451
  • DeVries, A. J., S. B. Feldstein, E. Tyrlis, M. Sprenger, M. Riemer, M. Baumgart, M. Fnais, and J. Lelieveld, 2016: Dynamics of tropical-extratropical interactions and extreme precipitation events in Saudi Arabia in autumn, winter, and spring, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 1862-1880
  • Teubler, F. and M. Riemer, 2016: Dynamics of Rossby wave packets in a quantitative potential vorticity–potential temperature framework, J. Atmos. Sci., 73, 1063-1081

2015

  • Riemer, M. and F. Laliberté, 2015: Secondary circulation of tropical cyclones in vertical wind shear: Lagrangian diagnostic and pathways of environmental interaction, J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 3517-3536
  • Piaget, N., P. Froidevaux, P. Giannakaki, F. Gierth, O. Martius, M. Riemer, G. Wolf, and C. M. Grams, 2015: Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source, large-scale circulation, and forecast uncertainty, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1922-1937

2014

  • Riemer, M., M. Baumgart, and S. Eiermann, 2014: Cyclogenesis downstream of extratropical transition analyzed by Q-vector partitioning based on flow geometry, J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 4204-4220
  • Riemer, M. and S. C. Jones, 2014: Interaction of a tropical cyclone with a high-amplitude, midlatitude wave pattern: Waviness analysis, trough deformation and track bifurcation, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1362-1376, DOI: 10.1002/qj.2221

2013

  • Riemer, M., M. T. Montgomery, and M. A. Nicholls, 2013: Further examination of the thermodynamic modification of the inflow layer of tropical cyclones by vertical wind shear, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 327-346, www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/327/

2012

  • Evans, C., H. M. Archambault, J. M. Cordeira, C. Fritz, T. J. Galarneau, S. Gjorgjievska, K. S. Griffin, A. Johnson, W. A. Komaromi, S. Monette, P. Muradyan, B. Murphy, M. Riemer, J. Sears, D. Stern, B. Tang, S. Thompson, 2012: The PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Field Campaign: Perspectives of Early Career Scientists, 2012: Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 173-187

2011

  • Riemer, M. and M.T. Montgomery, 2011: Simple kinematic models for the environmental interaction of tropical cyclones in vertical wind shear, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 9395-9414, www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/9395/

2010

  • Riemer, M., M. T. Montgomery, and M. A. Nicholls, 2010: A new paradigm for intensity modification of tropical cyclones: Thermodynamic impact of vertical wind shear on the inflow layer, Atmos. Chem. Phys, 10, 3163-3188, www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/3163/
  • Riemer, M. and S. C. Jones, 2010: Downstream impact of tropical cyclones on a developing baroclinic wave in idealized scenarios of extratropical transition, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 617–637

2008

  • Riemer, M., S. C. Jones, and C. A. Davis, 2008: The impact of extratropical transition on the downstream flow: an idealised modelling study with a straight jet, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 69-91

2006

  • Jones, S. C., D. Anwender, und M. Riemer, 2006: Die Umwandlung tropischer Wirbelstürme in außertropische Tiefdruckgebiete und ihr Einfluss auf das Wetter der mittleren Breiten, Promet, 32 (3/4), 130-143

2005

  • Wirth, V., H. Borth, J.-F. Lopez, W.-G. Panhans, M. Riemer and T. Szabo, 2005: Dynamics in the Extratropical Tropopause Region: a Case of Transition Between Dynamically Active and Passive Tracer Advection? Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc., 131, 247-258. [preprint]

2003

  • Sarazin, M. S., Graham, E., Beniston, M. and Riemer, M., 2003: New tools for a global survey of potential sites for the future giant telescopes, Future Giant Telescopes, 4840, 291-298