Synoptic-scale 10-day outlook based on ECMWF forecasts

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Notes:

• The outlook is updated every 12 hours based on the latest ECMWF HRES (10-day high resolution) and ENS (15-day ensemble) forecasts. Figures from 18/02/2022 on are stored and available upon request.
• The upper panel fields correspond to the HRES output and the middle panel fields correspond to ENS products. The lower panel shows the ensemble spread of Z at 500hPa in the last forecast and provides an indication of forecast jumpiness via the evolution of ensemble-mean Z at 500hPa through the last 4 forecasts.
• The Rossby wave packet (RWP) amplitude is based on the envelope of meridional wind following Fragkoulidis and Wirth (2020). Potential Vorticity (PV) is computed based on u, v, and T on pressure levels and then interpolated on the indicated isentropic level.
• Anomaly fields for MSLP, T, and v are defined as deviations from the respective mean annual cycles over the ERA5 1979-2019 period.
• The probabilities for 10-m wind gusts exceeding 15m/s and total precipitation exceeding 5mm or 20mm refer to the 24-hour period centered on the indicated valid time. The probabilities for standardized temperature anomaly at 850hPa exceeding 2 standard deviations refer to the instantaneous fields.
• Contact: Georgios Fragkoulidis (gfragkou@uni-mainz.de)
• More on ECMWF Open Data: ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/open-data

© 2022 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; ecmwf.int). This data is published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. ECMWF does not accept any liability whatsoever for any error or omission in the data, their availability, or for any loss or damage arising from their use. Some of the presented meteorological fields are diagnostics based on the ECMWF raw forecast data.